The Weekly Close

Verdict: Positive, priced for perfection. The silicon layer of the AI stack, and the price already knows it. FY2029 targets: $300 bear, $750 base, $1,050 bull.

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Verdict: Positive, with a capex watch. Zuckerberg's bold bets, an unmonetized WhatsApp, and the concrete triggers that would change the call. FY2029 targets: $600 bear, $1,150 base, $1,550 bull.

Full report →  ·  Five-pillar analysis →

September belonged to the AI trade. The Nasdaq gained 1.9% and touched fresh all-time highs on semiconductor strength (Micron's blowout quarter, Alphabet's new Gemini model), while the Dow fell 4.3%, snapping a five-month winning streak.

But look under the hood: the equal-weight S&P 500 fell while the cap-weighted index rose. Small caps lagged. And the 10-year Treasury yield punched above 5.3%, its highest since 2002, closing the bond market's worst quarter this century.

This is a narrow, AI-led market standing on a bond market screaming higher-for-longer. When leadership narrows this much, chasing the leaders is the most expensive mistake in the book. Friday's jobs report and the FOMC meeting at month-end decide what yields do next, and yields decide what happens after that.

"Close a loser and step away from the screen. The urge to win it back fast is how small losses become career losses. And let go of the ones you missed completely. I once sold 200 Nvidia shares at a 5x gain. They would be worth roughly 250x today. Missing a run stings your pride. Chasing it after the fact costs you capital. New setups come every week."

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THE BOOK THESE LESSONS ARE BUILDING

From Bagholder to Multibagger

The anatomy, psychology, and capital rotation behind generational winners. Coming February 2027.